Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a senior Shia leader in Iraq, has renewed calls for an autonomous Shia state in southern Iraq, widening the divide between the religious power centers in the south and the secular Kurds in the north. (BBC: Iraq Shias call for more autonomy)
The balance of power between conflicting Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish communities has been a major sticking point throughout the constitutional negotiations. Further complicating matters is growing contention within the Shia ranks between secular and religious leaders. Laith Kubba, a spokesman for Iraq's secular Shia Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, underscored this divide by calling the idea of a Shia region "unacceptable".
Distrust between the various ethnic and religious groups is nothing new. Strong divisions have existed in Iraqi society throughout much of their history. Melding these three groups into a single unified, cooperative, Democratic government appears increasingly unlikely. Forging a workable constitution in the short term is simply not going to happen. Also unlikely is any likehood of reduced US involvement in the region in the short (12-18 months) term.
What the final Iraqi government will look like is anybody's guess at this point. About the only point The Grape is sure of is that the long-term viable government will not be based on a cooperative democracy. Nor, given the history of Iraq, does such a government appear to be in our best interests. The most likely result longer term is a totalitarian government. Whether that will be a secular or religious based government remains to be seen, and ultimately, that is the most critical question.
Rather than continuing to foster false hopes of Democracy in Iraq, it would be in our best interests to promote and support a strong secular goverment that is pro West. Continuing to back the democratic process may actually leave us with a worst-case scenario - a fundamentalist Shiite based totalitarian regime.
Technorati: politics news Iraq constitution Shiite
IceRocket: politics news Iraq constitution Shiite
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All statements made are our express opinion only and should be treated as such.
We may own, take position and sell any securities mentioned at any time. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect
to predictions, goals, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, object'ives, assumptions or future events or perfo'rmance are
not
statements of historical fact and may be "forward,|ooking
statements." forward,|ooking statements are based on expectations, estimates
and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results
or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. This newsletter was paid $3,000 from third party (IR Marketing).
Forward,|ooking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as: "pr0jects", "f0resee", "expects". in compliance with Se'ction 17. {b), we disclose the holding of EGTY shares prior to the publication of this report. Be aware of an inherent conflict of interest resulting from such holdings due to our intent to profit from the liquidation of these shares. Shar,es may be sold at any time, even after positive statements have been made regarding the above company. Since we own shares, there is an inherent conflict of interest in our statements and opinions. Readers of this publication are cautioned not
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