Sunday, October 09, 2005

Iran Negotiator Sadly Mistaken

Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, stated his belief that the US was not capable of going to war, citing problems at home. According to Larijani, "There will not be a war ahead of us. The situation in America does not allow them to create new fronts." (News 24: US 'incapable of going to war').

There is only one way to keep Iran at the bargaining table and only one way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities short of an all-out attack and that is if Iran believes beyond all doubt that the US will launch against them otherwise. If Larijani is accurately expressing the views in Tehran, then war with Iran is inevitable. Without a doubt, Larijani is sadly mistaken. The US is quite capable of extending this war into Iran and if necessary will certainly do so to prevent them from gaining control over nuclear weapons technologies.

What Larijani is expressing, however, is the direct result of the various peace movements that have gotten a lot of press recently. Larijani may well be convinced that the American people won't stomach war with Iran. He may well believe that our military is over-extended. He may well believe that current poll numbers showing the President's popularity plummeting would prevent the President from taking action against Iran if necessary. If those truly are his beliefs, then we are that much closer to war.

The United States, Great Britain, and Israel simply will not and cannot allow Iran to obtain nuclear technologies. We will take whatever steps necessary to prevent that from happening. That is the only thing Larijani needs to understand.



Alan Fraser said...

America's bargaining position is somewhat limited given the utter hypocrisy of trying to tell others they can't have nukes while at the same time stocking thousands of them. I have no disagreement that Iran remains a poisonous threat and would become even more of one with nukes but, as I said a long time ago, America has little choice other than to launch a tactical strike against their nuke site, or sit down and shut up. The blustering doesn't impress anyone, least of all the Iranians.

Kannafoot said...

Our stockpile IS the bargaining chip, provided others believe we're willing to use it. The fact is, one Trident submarine could effectively remove Iran from the map. Unfortunately, nobody believes we would ever do it, thus reducing the effectiveness of our nuclear arsenal as a deterrent.

I agree that it's going to come down to a military strike. It could be avoided if Iran truly believed we would do, but apparently they don't.

This "blustering" is what some would call diplomacy, and others call "involving the UN". I call it a waste of time. Without a show of force, Iran is not going to budge from their position. Sooner or later, it will come down to military force.