|NI Monthly Chart|
The RSI(9) suggests that the decline is not yet over. When we compare the price lows of Wave-A and Wave-4 with the corresponding RSI level, we see a distinct bearish divergence. This strongly suggests that the correction currently in flight will have a relatively lengthy run. The MACD(5,34.5) would agree, having rolled over into a bearish crossover just after the Wave-5 top. The shape of that crossover is one that suggests it has a lengthy run ahead of it.
|NI Weekly Chart|
The bearish divergence in the RSI is evident on the weekly chart as well, again confirming the conclusion that the correction has a ways to go. Of interest, however, is the bullish crossover in the MACD. That's a good indication that Wave-A did end where we suspected, and that we're now into the Wave-B pullback. The MACD has been a good indication of major wave initiation, so watch for a bearish crossover to signal the start of Wave-C.
The bottom of Wave-A retraced 50% of Wave-5, so it's likely that Wave-C will take us at least to the 61.8% level or lower. That 61.8% line sits just above a good support line that marks the Wave-i top, so we'll be watching for signs of a MACD bullish crossover around that level. Of course, we won't know at the time if that's a Wave-III start or a Wave-X start, but either way it will be a tradeable up-wave.
|NI Daily Chart|
The next major direction we can anticipate is a Wave-C move that should be to the down side. I hesitate playing anything to the upside in this stock unless we see a sudden change in the volume signature that would indicate demand is once again coming into dominance. What I'm watching is the intersection of the current channel with that diagonal resistance line. There will be some downward pressure as we approach that convergence, but until then, there's nothing setting up that draws our interest. We need Wave-C to initiate to find a good reward to risk play, so we'll exercise patience and await that development.