Sunday, December 04, 2005

Israel Doubts Iran Accord Possible

Dan Halutz, chief of Israel's army, said on Sunday that he does not believe a diplomatic solution is possible in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Halutz told reporters, "I believe that the political means that are being used by the Europeans and the Americans to convince the Iranians to stop will not end in stopping them." (News24: Iran nuclear talks 'will fail').

Despite his skepticism over the potential success of diplomatic efforts, Halutz claims that plans for a preemptive strike are not yet under discussion, although he also states that a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. Clearly Israel has the most to lose should Iran ever gain nuclear technology since there's little doubt as to where Iranian missiles would be aimed. If anyone has the incentive to launch a preemptive strike, it is Israel.

That Israel is not yet considering such a strike comes as no surprise, however. Most of the nuclear research facilities in Iran are in subterranean bunkers that Israel is incapable of penetrating. A military strike by Israel would only anger the rest of the Middle East while doing very little harm to Iran's nuclear research. In fact, a strike by Israel could turn the tide of public opinion in favor of Iran, something the Israelis need to avoid at all cost.

Personally, I believe a nuclear strike against Iran is inevitable, although like Halutz I don't believe that strike will come from Israel. The only nation that has the ability to hit the underground bunkers in Iran is the US. When diplomatic efforts ultimately fail - and I'm certain they will fail - it will be the US, not Israel that hits Iran's nuclear facilities.

The US is already preparing unilateral economic sanctions against Iran. There can be little doubt that Iran's nuclear program will be debated in the UN Security Council in 2006 with additional sanctions from that body forthcoming. What remains to be seen is the timetable for an American military strike on the Iranian bunkers. Make no mistake, though, such a strike is virtually inevitable. It's not a question of "if", it's not a question of "by whom", it's only a question of "when."


1 comment :

A Christian Prophet said...

A message from the Holy Spirit on The Christian Prophet blog asks for prayers for the Iranian people, saying that nuclear weapons in the hands of current Iranian leaders would lead to a terrible world war.